How it finished
Excelsior beat Willem II 3–0. Bawler's model had Excelsior in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Willem II had 16 shots (2 on target) to Excelsior's 13 (6), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Willem II vs Excelsior?
Excelsior beat Willem II 3–0. Bawler's model had Excelsior in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Willem II had 16 shots (2 on target) to Excelsior's 13 (6), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.6.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
Willem II 0–3 Excelsior, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Willem II 29%, the draw 24% and Excelsior 47%.
What were the stats in Willem II vs Excelsior?
Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–1.6, Shots 16–13, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 11–10, Big chances 0–2, Corners 7–6, Saves 3–2, Fouls 10–14, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
No. It finished 0–3, so Willem II failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 64% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Excelsior or draw 71%, it finished Excelsior won (47% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 64%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.