FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Willem II 2–2 HeerenveenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heerenveen or draw at 75%. Bawler had Willem II at 25%, the draw at 23% and Heerenveen at 53%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Willem II win
25%
Draw
23%
Result
Heerenveen win
53%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Heerenveen to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.