FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4–1 Stoke CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 62%. Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 62%, the draw at 23% and Stoke City at 15%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
62%
Result
Draw
23%
Stoke City win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.8
Total 2.7
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Wolverhampton's 1.08 xG advantage and Adam Armstrong's 21% of team shooting creation give the hosts a decisive edge, driving a 62% home-win forecast over Stoke's 0.80 expected output."