FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at 80%. Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 54%, the draw at 25% and West Bromwich Albion at 20%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
West Bromwich Albion win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Wolves' 0.68 expected-goals edge and 52% win probability underpin the Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw forecast, with Armstrong's striker threat and Mané's creative output positioning the home side to avoid defeat."