FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Friday, 28 August 2026
Wrexham 1–2 Birmingham CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Wrexham or draw at 66%. Bawler had Wrexham at 38%, the draw at 28% and Birmingham City at 34%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
38%
Draw
28%
Birmingham City win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.