FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Wrexham 1–1 BurnleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 66%. Bawler had Wrexham at 34%, the draw at 28% and Burnley at 38%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
34%
Draw
28%
Result
Burnley win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Burnley or draw
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Wrexham's vanished urgency with nothing to play for collides with Burnley's desperation to escape the relegation zone, setting up a draw forecast at 68%—backed by narrow xG parity (1.23 vs 1.43) favoring neither side."