FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Aberdeen 0–0 KilmarnockMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aberdeen or draw at 72%. Bawler had Aberdeen at 47%, the draw at 25% and Kilmarnock at 28%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aberdeen win
47%
Draw
25%
Result
Kilmarnock win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Aberdeen or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% confidence because Aberdeen's 1.76 xG substantially outweighs Kilmarnock's 1.31, signaling enough attacking threat to breach the two-goal threshold."