Bawler / SCOTLAND: Premiership / Aberdeen
Team profile

Aberdeen Prediction

Per-game numbers from 47 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.9
a game
14.0 faced
On target
3.4
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 47 matches
Next match
12%
Aberdeen win chance
at Motherwell · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Aberdeen prediction: for Aberdeen's next match — Motherwell vs Aberdeen on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Motherwell are favoured (62%).

Aberdeen are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.88 expected goals a game against a Premiership average of 1.40. Next up is a trip to Motherwell, where the model has them as underdogs at 12%.

Aberdeen in numbers

47 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.5Away 0.6
4.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.5
Home 5.6Away 3.5
10.9
Shots · per game
faced 14.0
Home 12.3Away 9.4
3.4
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 4.4Away 2.4
Last 6 games
15 Aug
3-0
vs Dundee
7-10
08 Aug
1-0
@ Dundee
5-2
01 Aug
2-1
vs Hearts
4-6
17 May
2-3
@ Dundee
2-7
12 May
0-2
vs St. Mirren
6-1
09 May
2-0
vs Dundee United
4-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Motherwell · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
12%
Aberdeen
Draw
27%
Loss
62%
Motherwell
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Aberdeen compare with the SCOTLAND: Premiership average, per match.

Goals for
0.99
Below average
Goals against
1.88
Leakier than most
Scored0.99
Conceded1.88

The grey line on each bar is the SCOTLAND: Premiership average (1.34 scored, 1.40 conceded).

Recent matches (last 2)

Transfer activity

INTony YoganeLWfrom BrentfordUndisclosed
INAyoub MoulouaSTfrom FUS RabatUndisclosed
INMarius MüllerGKfrom WolfsburgUndisclosed
INLewis SmithRWfrom LivingstonUndisclosed
INConnor RonanDMfrom Colorado RapidsFree transfer
INAlexander BriedlDMfrom BW LinzFree transfer
INLewis MayoCBfrom KilmarnockFree transfer
INToyosi OlusanyaSTfrom Houston Dynamo FCFree transfer
OUTTopi KeskinenLWto OB€1m
OUTKjartan KjartanssonCMto Brann€700k
OUTAlexander JensenRBto Elfsborg€585k
OUTDimitar MitovGKto St. Pauli€400k
OUTNicolas MilanovicRWto Western Sydney Wanderers FCUndisclosed
OUTRyan DuncanCMto Inverness CTFree transfer
OUTPer Kristian BråtveitGKto FK HaugesundFree transfer
OUTGraeme ShinnieDMto Inverness CTFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Aberdeen and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly