Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock prediction — Scottish Premiership · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK

Scottish Premiership · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK
Aberdeen 47Draw 25Kilmarnock 28
Our call before kickoff
72%
Aberdeen or draw
Landed
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
73%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
60%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
59%

How it finished

Aberdeen and Kilmarnock drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Aberdeen at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Aberdeen had 10 shots (2 on target) to Kilmarnock's 11 (4), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 0.9.

AberdeenFull-time statsKilmarnock
55%Possession45%
0.9Expected goals (xG)0.9
10Shots11
2Shots on target4
6Shots inside box8
1Big chances1
6Corners7
4Saves2
13Fouls13
0Offsides0
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAberdeen or draw 72%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.10
Both teams to score60%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 81%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

AberdeenKilmarnock
1.8
Goals+0.4
1.3
21.4
Shots+5.1
16.3
3.5
On target+2.6
6.2
6.6
Corners+0.8
5.8
AberdeenKilmarnock
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
9.8
Shots+2.5
7.2
1.6
On target+1.1
2.7
3.1
Corners+0.4
2.7
AberdeenKilmarnock
1.2
Goals+0.4
0.9
11.7
Shots+2.6
9.1
1.9
On target+1.5
3.5
3.5
Corners+0.4
3.1

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Aberdeen to score83%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Kilmarnock to score73%
Under 3.5 goals63%

First half — what we expected

Aberdeen
52%
to score before half-time
Kilmarnock
44%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%

AberdeenKilmarnock
9.81st-half shots7.2
1.61st-half shots on target2.7
3.11st-half corners2.7

First-half chances

59%Chance of 9+ shots32%
39%Chance of 11+ shots16%
45%Chance of 2+ shots on target71%
10%Chance of 4+ shots on target29%
76%Chance of 2+ corners70%
37%Chance of 4+ corners30%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Aberdeen9.811.7
Shots · Kilmarnock7.29.1
Shots on target · Aberdeen1.61.9
Shots on target · Kilmarnock2.73.5
Corners · Aberdeen3.13.5
Corners · Kilmarnock2.73.1
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Aberdeen 4 · Draws 0 · Kilmarnock 1
Kilmarnock in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Apr 2026Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock
Jan 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 Aberdeen
Dec 2025Aberdeen 2–1 Kilmarnock
Oct 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 Aberdeen
Feb 2025Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Aberdeen and Kilmarnock drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Aberdeen at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Aberdeen had 10 shots (2 on target) to Kilmarnock's 11 (4), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 0.9.

What was the final score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Aberdeen 0–0 Kilmarnock, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Aberdeen 47%, the draw 25% and Kilmarnock 28%.

What were the stats in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–0.9, Shots 10–11, Shots on target 2–4, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 1–1, Corners 6–7, Saves 4–2, Fouls 13–13, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 5–3, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

No. It finished 0–0, so Aberdeen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Aberdeen or draw 72%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Premiership table →
All fixtures & results →Aberdeen form →Kilmarnock form →