FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
AC Milan 0–2 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 65%. Bawler had AC Milan at 39%, the draw at 26% and Benfica at 35%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
AC Milan win
39%
Draw
26%
Benfica win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Milan's 1.51 xG and Benfica's 1.43 xG combine for a high-volume attacking blueprint, with Leão and Pavlidis each commanding their team's shot creation."