How it finished
Benfica beat AC Milan 2–0. Bawler's model favoured AC Milan at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Benfica 35%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 17 shots (4 on target) to Benfica's 11 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.6, so AC Milan created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won AC Milan vs Benfica?
Benfica beat AC Milan 2–0. Bawler's model favoured AC Milan at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Benfica 35%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 17 shots (4 on target) to Benfica's 11 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.6, so AC Milan created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Benfica?
AC Milan 0–2 Benfica, played on 16 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with AC Milan 39%, the draw 26% and Benfica 35%.
What were the stats in AC Milan vs Benfica?
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.6, Shots 17–11, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 9–5, Big chances 0–1, Corners 10–1, Saves 2–4, Fouls 14–12, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–5.
Did both teams score in AC Milan vs Benfica?
No. It finished 0–2, so AC Milan failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AC Milan or draw 65%, it finished Benfica won (35% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.