FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AC Milan 3–0 LecceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan to win at 64%. Bawler had AC Milan at 64%, the draw at 22% and Lecce at 15%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AC Milan win
64%
Result
Draw
22%
Lecce win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AC Milan to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AC Milan's home win carries 64% forecast backing, anchored by a 1.16 expected-goals advantage that Leão's creative wing play should help convert."