FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
AFC Bournemouth 1–1 EvertonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth or draw at 75%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 51%, the draw at 24% and Everton at 25%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AFC Bournemouth win
51%
Draw
24%
Result
Everton win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
AFC Bournemouth to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Everton chases European qualification while Bournemouth has nothing to play for, yet the hosts' 1.87 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals (82% forecast) the standout call."