AFC Bournemouth and Everton drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured AFC Bournemouth at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. AFC Bournemouth had 17 shots (5 on target) to Everton's 13 (7), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 1.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
AFC Bournemouth and Everton drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured AFC Bournemouth at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. AFC Bournemouth had 17 shots (5 on target) to Everton's 13 (7), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 1.7.
AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Everton, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with AFC Bournemouth 51%, the draw 24% and Everton 25%.
Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–1.7, Shots 17–13, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 13–7, Big chances 3–3, Corners 10–7, Saves 5–4, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–2.
Yes — both AFC Bournemouth and Everton scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AFC Bournemouth or draw 75%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said AFC Bournemouth to win 51%, it finished Missed.