FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AFC Bournemouth 0–1 LiverpoolMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth or draw at 66%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 41%, the draw at 25% and Liverpool at 34%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AFC Bournemouth win
41%
Draw
25%
Liverpool win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Bournemouth's 1.66 xG and Liverpool's 1.47 xG combine for 3.13 expected, suggesting a fluid contest where Ekitiké's 23% shot share and Evanilson's 18% will find chances."