FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 ExcelsiorMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam to win at 61%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 61%, the draw at 21% and Excelsior at 18%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
61%
Draw
21%
Result
Excelsior win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Ajax's 0.92 expected-goals advantage and Weghorst's 26% of team creation make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 83%-confidence call for a match tilted decisively toward an open contest."