How it finished
Ajax Amsterdam and Excelsior drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Ajax Amsterdam at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 4. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (8 on target) to Excelsior's 4 (2), with 81% of the ball against 19%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 86%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?
Ajax Amsterdam and Excelsior drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Ajax Amsterdam at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 4. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (8 on target) to Excelsior's 4 (2), with 81% of the ball against 19%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?
Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 Excelsior, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 61%, the draw 21% and Excelsior 18%.
What were the stats in Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?
Full-time: Possession 81%–19%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–0.8, Shots 33–4, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 24–4, Big chances 3–2, Corners 9–0, Saves 0–6, Fouls 6–12, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?
Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and Excelsior scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Ajax Amsterdam to win 61%, it finished Draw (21% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes.