FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Alavés 3–0 GetafeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alavés or draw at 81%. Bawler had Alavés at 48%, the draw at 33% and Getafe at 19%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
48%
Result
Draw
33%
Getafe win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 0.8
Total 2.3
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.