FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Alavés 5–2 OsasunaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alavés or draw at 74%. Bawler had Alavés at 46%, the draw at 27% and Osasuna at 26%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
46%
Result
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 4.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Alavés or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Alavés at home holds a 0.43 expected-goals edge over Osasuna, and the model's high-confidence call is Over 1.5 Goals at 74%, reflecting a low-scoring but open contest between two sides with nothing left to fight for."