FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Alavés 0–1 ValenciaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Alavés or draw at 72%. Bawler had Alavés at 44%, the draw at 27% and Valencia at 28%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
44%
Draw
27%
Valencia win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% forecast confidence, grounded in Alavés' 0.35 xG advantage and superior win probability that should translate to attacking intent at home."