How it finished
Valencia beat Alavés 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Alavés at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Valencia 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. Alavés had 15 shots (3 on target) to Valencia's 10 (3), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.7, so Alavés created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Alavés vs Valencia?
Valencia beat Alavés 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Alavés at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Valencia 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. Alavés had 15 shots (3 on target) to Valencia's 10 (3), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.7, so Alavés created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Alavés vs Valencia?
Alavés 0–1 Valencia, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Alavés 44%, the draw 27% and Valencia 28%.
What were the stats in Alavés vs Valencia?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.7, Shots 15–10, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 11–5, Big chances 2–1, Corners 2–5, Saves 2–3, Fouls 7–14, Offsides 3–4, Yellow cards 1–4.
Did both teams score in Alavés vs Valencia?
No. It finished 0–1, so Alavés failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Alavés vs Valencia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Alavés or draw 72%, it finished Valencia won (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 74%, it finished Missed.