FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Alverca 1–2 BragaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 75%. Bawler had Alverca at 25%, the draw at 26% and Braga at 49%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
25%
Draw
26%
Braga win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.6
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, with Braga's 0.52 xG edge and Roger Fernandes's wing creation (22% of team xG) positioning the visitors to generate enough attacking pressure for a multi-goal outcome."