FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Alverca 2–2 EstrelaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 15 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alverca at 55%, draw at 29%, Estrela at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Alverca to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
55%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Estrela win
16%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won