FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Alverca 2–2 EstrelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alverca or draw at 84%. Bawler had Alverca at 55%, the draw at 29% and Estrela at 16%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
55%
Draw
29%
Result
Estrela win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Estrela or draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.