PORTUGAL: Liga PortugalSaturday 15 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Alverca vEstrela

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Alverca 55%Draw 29%Estrela 16%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
79%
How we get there
AlvercastepEstrela
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Estrela or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Alverca average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Estrela average 2.9 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Alverca fixtures & form →Estrela fixtures & form →

Alverca vs Estrela — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Alverca and Estrela — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Alverca 55% · draw 29% · Estrela 16%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Alverca predictions & form →Estrela predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Alverca 2–2 Estrela
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.