How it finished
Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Alverca at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Alverca had 14 shots (4 on target) to Estrela's 10 (7), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Alverca at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 29%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Alverca had 14 shots (4 on target) to Estrela's 10 (7), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca 2–2 Estrela, played on 15 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Alverca 55%, the draw 29% and Estrela 16%.
What were the stats in Alverca vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–1.3, Shots 14–10, Shots on target 4–7, Shots inside box 10–8, Big chances 3–2, Corners 2–0, Saves 5–2, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–4, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Alverca vs Estrela?
Yes — both Alverca and Estrela scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Alverca vs Estrela right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Alverca or draw 84%, it finished Draw (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 50%, it finished Landed.