FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Alverca 1–0 Rio AveMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alverca or draw at 75%. Bawler had Alverca at 49%, the draw at 26% and Rio Ave at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
49%
Result
Draw
26%
Rio Ave win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.3 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Rio Ave to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Alverca's 0.53 expected-goals edge translates to a Alverca or draw forecast (draw or home win) that the model backs at 76%, reflecting superior attacking threat against a visiting side managing just 1.06 xG."