FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Anderlecht 1–2 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 78%. Bawler had Anderlecht at 22%, the draw at 23% and Lyon at 54%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
22%
Draw
23%
Lyon win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lyon or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lyon's 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make Lyon or draw the high-confidence forecast at 78%, with Lacazette's striker role central to their attacking efficiency."