World: World CupFriday 03 Jul, 22:00 UTC

Argentina vCape Verde

Most likely scoreline
20
12% of the time · 2.98 goals expected
Argentina 67%Draw 23%Cape Verde 11%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
80%

Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 75% probability because Argentina's 2.17 xG dwarfs Cape Verde's 0.75, giving the hosts a decisive 1.42-goal edge in shot quality.

How we get there
ArgentinastepCape Verde
2.19Base xG · rolling 26-match0.79
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.19Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.79
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Cape Verde or draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Argentina average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Cape Verde average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
4
2
1
11
9
3
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
9
7
3
1
4
5
4
2
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Argentina vs Cape Verde — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Argentina and Cape Verde — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Argentina 67% · draw 23% · Cape Verde 11%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 11 Cape Verde
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.