FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 18 September 2026
AS Monaco 2–1 LensMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 65%. Bawler had AS Monaco at 35%, the draw at 24% and Lens at 41%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Monaco win
35%
Result
Draw
24%
Lens win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.7
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because both sides carry comparable attacking threat—Monaco's 1.59 xG and Lens's 1.73 xG create a fixture where Balogun and Sotoca operate in evenly matched conditions."