How it finished
AS Monaco beat Lens 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lens at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave AS Monaco 35%. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. AS Monaco had 9 shots (6 on target) to Lens' 12 (4), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won AS Monaco vs Lens?
AS Monaco beat Lens 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lens at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave AS Monaco 35%. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. AS Monaco had 9 shots (6 on target) to Lens' 12 (4), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
What was the final score in AS Monaco vs Lens?
AS Monaco 2–1 Lens, played on 18 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with AS Monaco 35%, the draw 24% and Lens 41%.
What were the stats in AS Monaco vs Lens?
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.0, Shots 9–12, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 6–10, Big chances 3–2, Corners 2–8, Saves 3–5, Fouls 13–11, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in AS Monaco vs Lens?
Yes — both AS Monaco and Lens scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 66% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for AS Monaco vs Lens right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lens or draw 65%, it finished AS Monaco won (35% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 66%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.