FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
AS Monaco 2–0 MarseilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco or draw at 68%. Bawler had AS Monaco at 43%, the draw at 24% and Marseille at 32%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Monaco win
43%
Result
Draw
24%
Marseille win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.