FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 31 August 2026
Atalanta 1–0 BolognaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atalanta or draw at 73%. Bawler had Atalanta at 46%, the draw at 26% and Bologna at 27%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Bologna win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Atalanta or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.