FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026

Athletic Club 0–0 AlavésMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Athletic Club or draw at 73%. Bawler had Athletic Club at 46%, the draw at 27% and Alavés at 27%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Athletic Club win
46%
Draw
27%
Result
Alavés win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Athletic Club or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 74% call here, built on Athletic Club's 0.41 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.62 that favours an open encounter."

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