FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Athletic Club 1–1 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Athletic Club or draw at 79%. Bawler had Athletic Club at 54%, the draw at 25% and Elche at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Athletic Club win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Elche win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Athletic Club or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Athletic Club's 0.76 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make Athletic Club or draw (no Elche win) a 79% forecast, with Williams' wing threat adding penetration the visitors cannot match."