FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Atlanta United FC 0–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 63%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 37%, the draw at 26% and Charlotte FC at 37%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
37%
Draw
26%
Charlotte FC win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, grounded in Atlanta and Charlotte's near-identical offensive threat (1.51 vs 1.50 xG) and Almada's creative presence fueling Atlanta's attacking third."