FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026

Atlanta United FC 2–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026

Atlanta United FC
2–1
Atlanta United FC win
Red Bull New York

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 45%, the draw at 27% and Red Bull New York at 28%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Atlanta United FC win
45%
Result
Draw
27%
Red Bull New York win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.9
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Red Bull New York to win
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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