FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Atlético Madrid 4–0 OsasunaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid or draw at 78%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 54%, the draw at 24% and Osasuna at 22%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Osasuna win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, anchored on Atlético Madrid's 0.73 xG advantage and Griezmann's creation of 25% of team chances against a visitor managing just 1.08 expected goals."