FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 25 September 2026

Australia 1–1 BrazilMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Brazil or draw at 79%. Bawler had Australia at 21%, the draw at 26% and Brazil at 53%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Australia win
21%
Draw
26%
Result
Brazil win
53%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 1.6
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Brazil or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Brazil's quality at the wing (Vinícius Jr at 22% of team xG) and overall 0.68 expected-goals advantage make Brazil or draw the high-confidence forecast at 79%, as the model expects the visitors to either win or draw in this friendly."

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