How it finished
Australia and Brazil drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Brazil at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Australia had 7 shots (2 on target) to Brazil's 16 (5), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Australia vs Brazil?
Australia and Brazil drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Brazil at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Australia had 7 shots (2 on target) to Brazil's 16 (5), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Australia vs Brazil?
Australia 1–1 Brazil, played on 25 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Australia 21%, the draw 26% and Brazil 53%.
What were the stats in Australia vs Brazil?
Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.2, Shots 7–16, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 3–8, Big chances 2–2, Corners 9–8, Saves 4–1, Fouls 7–8, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Australia vs Brazil?
Yes — both Australia and Brazil scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Australia vs Brazil right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Brazil or draw 79%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes.