FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar 1–0 TelstarMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar to win at 65%. Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 65%, the draw at 19% and Telstar at 15%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
65%
Result
Draw
19%
Telstar win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.1
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AZ Alkmaar's home win is the model's 64% call, built on a decisive 1.22 xG advantage and Troy Parrott's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of their attacking threat."