How it finished
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Lithuania at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Azerbaijan 32%. It forecast 2.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Azerbaijan had 13 shots (7 on target) to Lithuania's 13 (3), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Lithuania at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Azerbaijan 32%. It forecast 2.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Azerbaijan had 13 shots (7 on target) to Lithuania's 13 (3), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Azerbaijan 32%, the draw 29% and Lithuania 39%.
What were the stats in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.2, Shots 13–13, Shots on target 7–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 2–2, Corners 2–5, Saves 3–6, Fouls 14–10, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
No. It finished 1–0, so Lithuania failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lithuania or draw 68%, it finished Azerbaijan won (32% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 69%, it finished Missed.