How it finished
Azerbaijan beat Tajikistan 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Tajikistan at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Azerbaijan 15%. It forecast 3.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Azerbaijan had 11 shots (4 on target) to Tajikistan's 12 (4), with 48% of the ball against 52%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Azerbaijan beat Tajikistan 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Tajikistan at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Azerbaijan 15%. It forecast 3.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Azerbaijan had 11 shots (4 on target) to Tajikistan's 12 (4), with 48% of the ball against 52%.
What was the final score in Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan, played on 23 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Azerbaijan 15%, the draw 19% and Tajikistan 66%.
What were the stats in Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Shots 11–12, Shots on target 4–4, Corners 4–3, Fouls 18–23, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
No. It finished 1–0, so Tajikistan failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Tajikistan to win 66%, it finished Azerbaijan won (15% called); Total goals — we said 3.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished No.