FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB LeipzigMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 73%. Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 50%, the draw at 23% and RB Leipzig at 27%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayer Leverkusen win
50%
Result
Draw
23%
RB Leipzig win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 85% likelihood, backed by Leverkusen's 0.48 xG advantage and Openda's 26% of Leipzig's attacking load creating a two-way threat."