FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 18 September 2026
Bayern Munich 7–0 1. FC Union BerlinMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 80%. Bawler had Bayern Munich at 80%, the draw at 13% and 1. FC Union Berlin at 8%. The match finished 7–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayern Munich win
80%
Result
Draw
13%
1. FC Union Berlin win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
3.1 – 0.9
Total 4.0
Actual
7 – 0
Total 7 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayern's dominance in expected chances—a 2.19 xG advantage—underpins the Home Win forecast at 80% probability."