FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 31 August 2026
Benfica 2–1 EstorilMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 76%. Bawler had Benfica at 76%, the draw at 16% and Estoril at 9%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
76%
Result
Draw
16%
Estoril win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.