FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Besiktas 4–1 MarseilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 69%. Bawler had Besiktas at 31%, the draw at 25% and Marseille at 44%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
31%
Result
Draw
25%
Marseille win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Marseille or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Marseille or draw is the high-confidence forecast at 69% because Marseille's 1.70 xG and 44% win probability edge Besiktas despite a narrow overall xG gap, with Mason Greenwood's wing threat accounting for 26% of the visiting attack."