How it finished
Besiktas beat Marseille 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Marseille at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Besiktas 31%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Besiktas had 18 shots (7 on target) to Marseille's 14 (3), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Besiktas vs Marseille?
Besiktas beat Marseille 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Marseille at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Besiktas 31%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Besiktas had 18 shots (7 on target) to Marseille's 14 (3), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Besiktas vs Marseille?
Besiktas 4–1 Marseille, played on 17 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Besiktas 31%, the draw 25% and Marseille 44%.
What were the stats in Besiktas vs Marseille?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 2.3–0.9, Shots 18–14, Shots on target 7–3, Shots inside box 13–6, Big chances 3–1, Corners 3–3, Saves 2–3, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Besiktas vs Marseille?
Yes — both Besiktas and Marseille scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Besiktas vs Marseille right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Marseille or draw 69%, it finished Besiktas won (31% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished Yes.