FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Bologna 2–2 SassuoloMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bologna or draw at 76%. Bawler had Bologna at 50%, the draw at 26% and Sassuolo at 24%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
50%
Draw
26%
Result
Sassuolo win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Sassuolo to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bologna's hunt for European football at home against a Sassuolo side with nothing to chase creates asymmetric pressure that, combined with their 0.62 xG advantage, points toward Over 1.5 Goals at 76% confidence."