Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction — Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 17:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 17:00 UK
Bologna 50Draw 26Sassuolo 24
Our call before kickoff
76%
Bologna or draw
Landed
2.7
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–2
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
54%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
53%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
51%

How it finished

Bologna and Sassuolo drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Bologna at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Bologna had 21 shots (5 on target) to Sassuolo's 15 (6), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.4.

BolognaFull-time statsSassuolo
61%Possession39%
1.9Expected goals (xG)1.4
21Shots15
5Shots on target6
14Shots inside box9
6Big chances3
10Corners7
4Saves3
14Fouls9
0Offsides2
2Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callBologna or draw 76%Draw (26% called)
Total goals2.74
Both teams to score53%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 75%Landed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 51%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

BolognaSassuolo
1.6
Goals+0.6
1.1
17.0
Shots+7.5
9.5
5.4
On target+1.9
3.5
6.0
Corners+2.3
3.7
BolognaSassuolo
0.4
Goals+0.2
0.2
7.2
Shots+2.8
4.5
2.2
On target+0.6
1.7
2.8
Corners+1.1
1.7
BolognaSassuolo
1.2
Goals+0.4
0.8
9.8
Shots+4.7
5.0
3.2
On target+1.3
1.8
3.2
Corners+1.2
2.0

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Bologna to score81%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Sassuolo to score66%

First half — what we expected

Bologna
40%
to score before half-time
Sassuolo
24%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 54%

BolognaSassuolo
7.21st-half shots4.5
2.21st-half shots on target1.7
2.81st-half corners1.7

First-half chances

66%Chance of 6+ shots31%
42%Chance of 8+ shots13%
86%Chance of 1+ shots on target77%
38%Chance of 3+ shots on target24%
72%Chance of 2+ corners48%
32%Chance of 4+ corners13%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Bologna7.29.8
Shots · Sassuolo4.55.0
Shots on target · Bologna2.23.2
Shots on target · Sassuolo1.71.8
Corners · Bologna2.83.2
Corners · Sassuolo1.72.0
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Bologna 2 · Draws 3 · Sassuolo 0
Sassuolo in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Mar 2026Sassuolo 0–1 Bologna
Dec 2025Bologna 1–1 Sassuolo
Feb 2024Bologna 4–2 Sassuolo
Oct 2023Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna
May 2023Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bologna and Sassuolo drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Bologna at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Bologna had 21 shots (5 on target) to Sassuolo's 15 (6), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.4.

What was the final score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bologna 2–2 Sassuolo, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bologna 50%, the draw 26% and Sassuolo 24%.

What were the stats in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.4, Shots 21–15, Shots on target 5–6, Shots inside box 14–9, Big chances 6–3, Corners 10–7, Saves 4–3, Fouls 14–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–1.

Did both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Yes — both Bologna and Sassuolo scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Bologna vs Sassuolo right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bologna or draw 76%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Bologna form →Sassuolo form →