FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Braga 1–0 EstorilMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga to win at 65%. Bawler had Braga at 65%, the draw at 21% and Estoril at 15%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
65%
Result
Draw
21%
Estoril win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Braga's home win prediction sits at 65% on a 1.22 expected-goals advantage, with Roger Fernandes's wing play driving 22% of their attacking output against a Estoril side managing just 0.94 xG."