Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 16 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Braga vGil Vicente

Most likely scoreline
1–0
12% of the time · 2.57 goals expected
Braga 56%Draw 26%Gil Vicente 18%
Strongest call
Braga or draw
84%

Braga's 0.68 xG advantage and 56% win probability make 1X the high-confidence call at 84%, with Roger Fernandes' wing creation pivotal to their dominance in a mismatch favoring the home side.

How we get there
BragastepGil Vicente
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.63Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.95
Most likely outcomes
Braga or draw
84%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Braga average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Gil Vicente average 5.7 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
7
3
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
1
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Braga fixtures & form →Gil Vicente fixtures & form →

Braga vs Gil Vicente — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Braga and Gil Vicente — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Braga 56% · draw 26% · Gil Vicente 18%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Braga predictions & form →Gil Vicente predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.